The central parity of the RMB exchange rate was 6.8731, an appreciation of 77 points.
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Sina Finance News December 8 news, the morning China Foreign Exchange Trading Center issued an announcement, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate reported 6.8731, an increase of 77 basis points over the previous trading day.
In addition, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 50-billion-day 7-day reverse repurchase operation, a 10 billion-day 14-day reverse repurchase operation, and a 10 billion-day 28-day reverse repurchase operation. Today, there will be 145 billion reverse repurchase orders. .
Analysts said that on Tuesday and Wednesday for two consecutive trading days, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar did not fluctuate greatly due to the one-day jump and jump of the mid-price, and generally operated within the range of 6.87 to 6.89. This aspect shows that the current middle price is weaker, and on the other hand, it shows the stability of trading sentiment in the domestic market. Although the demand for foreign exchange purchases at the end of the year is still relatively strong, the international exchange market is still waiting for the “boots†of the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, but the situation of the inter-bank foreign exchange market and the offshore market’s trading sentiment is still stable. continue.
The renminbi staged stable fabric will remain
At present, the focus of the global foreign exchange market is moving further to the Fed's December meeting on interest rates in the next week. It is expected that after the event is settled, the major non-US currencies will be able to find the next trend. Prior to this, the expected volatility of the RMB against the US dollar will be relatively limited.
For the overall trend of the RMB exchange rate in the future, some research institutes have indicated that, in light of the recent regulation of the central bank in terms of funds, the policy guidance of the central bank's “stable currency†and “stable exchange rate†in December has been very obvious. Considering that the central bank has intentionally reduced the “quantitative intervention†on the exchange rate in the near term, and at the same time, by tightening foreign exchange management and tightening capital flows to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations, the recent RMB depreciation pressure is expected to ease.
Foreign exchange reserves are one step away from $3 trillion
The central bank announced the foreign exchange reserve data for November on December 7. As of November 30, 2016, China's foreign exchange reserves were 3.0516 trillion US dollars, down by 69.1 billion US dollars from the end of October, a decrease of 2.2%. This is the fifth consecutive month of decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves, and the largest decline since January this year.
Regarding the reason for the decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves in November, the relevant person in charge of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange gave the explanation that “the central bank provides foreign exchange funds to the market to adjust the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand, and the non-US dollar currency depreciates against the US dollar after the US election. The price also has a combined effect of multiple factors such as a correction, resulting in a decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves."
Some experts said that the reduction of foreign exchange reserves cannot be regarded as capital flight. Under the current cross-border capital flow management framework, there is no significant change in the overall downward trend of the deficit pressure on foreign exchange settlement and sales in the second half of 2016. However, experts also said that it is still necessary to be alert to the risk of capital outflows and the depreciation of the RMB depreciation.
Future external storage pressure will ease
Yi Gang, deputy governor of the central bank, said in a recent reporter's question that the renminbi still shows stable and strong currency characteristics in the global monetary system. He stressed that despite the recent decline in China's foreign exchange reserves, it still ranks first in the world and is very abundant.
Liu Dongliang, senior analyst of China Merchants Bank's asset management department, pointed out that before Trump officially launched a large-scale tax reduction and infrastructure plan, the US dollar interest rate hike will continue to push the dollar stronger; after the launch of its plan, as the deficit expands again, the dollar strengthens. It will be weakened, but the extent to which it is weakened is highly uncertain, depending on the scale of Trump’s expansionary policies and the degree of boost in the US economy.
Xie Yaxuan, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that after the Fed’s interest rate hike boots in December, the dollar may peak in stages. At the same time, the SAFE has recently strengthened the management of RMB external net payments. The foreign exchange management policy has been targeted and perfected. It is expected that the size of the foreign exchange reserves used by the central bank in the offshore market and the central bank's foreign exchange reserves will be expected to decline this month, and the capital outflow pressure will be expected to ease.
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