In 2016, there was no significant improvement in the spinning industry. Overall demand was weaker.
Upstream Textile Manufacturing: Rising cotton prices and depreciation of exchange rates favor traditional textile manufacturing companies
The devaluation of the exchange rate and the increase in the price of cotton to improve the business environment of the company have a significant effect on performance. Since the exchange rate reform in 15 years, the renminbi has depreciated by more than 7%, increasing export revenue and enhancing the competitiveness of export commodities, which favors manufacturing enterprises with a high export share. Due to the reversal of short-term cotton supply and demand, the low inventory of downstream textile enterprises and the slow progress in the accumulation of profit improvement, and the rapid increase in domestic cotton prices. Cotton futures (continuous contracts) have risen more than 30% since March. In addition, the demand for cotton in 2016 is expected to exceed 2015, and the area of ​​cotton planted in the country will fall by 10.1% year-on-year. Cotton's medium and long-term supply and demand will be tighter and tighter, which will benefit traditional textile manufacturing leading enterprises.
Downstream brand retail: Focus on consumer pursuit of cost-effective, children's clothing outbreak
In 2016, there was no significant improvement in the industry. Under the economic slowdown, consumers value quality and cost-effective brands can seize the market. Both UNIQLO and GAP have rapidly emerged during the economic downturn, and GU and Primark, which are currently positioned at lower prices, are very bright, and apparel consumption is pursuing a clear trend toward cost-effectiveness. The trend of children's clothing branding is obvious. The second-child policy and the upgrading of children's consumption are driving the rapid growth of the industry. The market size is expected to reach 150 billion by 2017.
Supply chain management should be born
The overall demand for the textile and apparel industry is relatively weak, the supply is excessive, the market concentration is low, and the mismatch between supply and demand is very obvious. However, the traditional model industry chain is too long and the intermediate links consume a lot. Supply chain management has become the key to the industry out of its predicament. On the one hand, supply chain management reduces the loss of intermediate links and improves efficiency. On the other hand, the flexible supply chain can meet consumers' needs for high-frequency, small-batch, and personalization, and there is ample room for development.
IP derivatives become a new outlet for consumption
Data show that the core industries of Pan-Entertainment from 2011 to 2015 are all in a long-term upward trend. The total output value has increased from RMB 188.8 billion to RMB 422.9 billion, and the compound growth rate has reached 22.34%. According to the statistics, the peripheral products of stars account for 10% of the total entertainment industry. Compared with the rough estimate, the total output value in 2015 reached 42 billion. IP derivatives can bring huge end-to-end flows and strong liquidity, and are now above new consumer outlets.
Investment Strategy
Textile manufacturing sector: recommending leading companies with steady growth in low valuation performance, especially those companies that benefit from depreciation of the exchange rate and rising cotton prices, such as Huafu Color Spinning, Xinye Textile, Lianfa, Blum Oriental, Luthai A, Fu Japanese shares. Branded retail sector: Recommendations 1) Low valuation, PEG "1's Hakuba's Summa Garments and Haicang House; 2) Transformation of supply chain management, and high growth of Souyu Te; 3) Standing on the consumer air outlet and cutting into the stars Lots of love in the market.
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