Analysis of China's Cotton Market Operation and Forecast in 2012

The new cotton year has already started. How will the new cotton annual cotton and cotton spinning trend develop? How will the national cotton control policy play a role in the new year? How will the company operate in an integrated environment? It will be the top priority for cotton-affiliated units. .

For the relevant government departments, how to ensure the smooth operation of the new cotton year and prevent the great ups and downs on the industry's impact should be the main content of regulation. There are many problems in this process, such as preventing major fluctuations in cotton prices, preventing ups and downs in the area of ​​cotton planting in the coming year, and preventing domestic and export fluctuations in textiles as the main targets of regulation.

For enterprises, under the background of the government's macro-control, how to take the initiative to make a difference in cotton, create better returns, purchase of target materials, cooperation of product terminals, rational liquidity structure arrangement, and fund security Prevention should be an important concern for cotton-related companies.

In the new cotton year, under the game of the main players, the cotton or the wind is surging, or turbulent, but there must be no undercurrent.

1. Overall, combined with the relevant policies that have already been introduced, the new cotton domestic cotton of the year will be a policy-led one. Since the reform of cotton in China, the shadow of policy-making has been seen everywhere. It is only evident at special moments. The ups and downs of cotton seem to be a reflection of its actions. However, from a certain perspective, it is also an indication that policy regulation cannot make up for it in a timely manner. The ups and downs of cotton have caused great harm to the healthy development of the industry. This raises higher requirements for related departments. Relevant government departments, intermediate organizations in the industry, and industry enterprises should reflect in due course. Not only must more plans be established, but the formulation of policies should be more transparent and more predictable; the industry and the company's plans should be forward-looking.

2. New Cotton Annual Global Cotton Supply and Demand Structure Restoration and Order Adjustment Will Bring a Great Increase to China's Operational Global Cotton Supply Increase and the Comparative Advantages of Textile Processing, such as India and Pakistan, will further complicate the operating environment of China's textile industry. . The advantages of the industrial chain of China's textile industry will be severely challenged.

The buyer’s position of cotton will determine that the price of imported cotton will be lower than the domestic price for a long time. There are two aspects here: First, the global cotton planting average cost and the subsidy policy of the major product countries cause the global cotton price to be extremely unfavorable to China's cotton production, and the domestic cotton price cannot be substantially increased. This year's standard cotton reaches 19,800 yuan per ton. The library storage and storage price has greatly increased the international cotton planting area. Second, China’s share of textile production accounts for a relatively large proportion of the world’s total. At the same time, China is also the largest cotton producer and importer. The advantage of China's textile industry's industrial chain is relatively small under the premise of little difference in raw material prices at home and abroad, and its comparative advantage is prominent. However, if the raw material price difference is too large, combined with the current import and export policies, it will lead textile companies into trouble. At the same time, neighboring countries with comparative advantages in raw materials will seize domestic gauze. In other words, a comparative advantage will lead to a large quantity of imported gauze in China, and the appreciation of *** will also play a catalytic role. The pressure on the textile industry in China has increased.

Third, the impact of the global environmental emergency factors on the domestic textile can not be ignored Although the degree of foreign textile dependence is gradually reduced, but the proportion is still very large. Critical moments may also play a role in leveraging and accelerating volatility. The financial tsunami caused by the US “subprime mortgage crisis” in 2008 ultimately had a profound impact on the entity. China’s financial stimulus policies also leave many hidden dangers for domestic development.

The global environment remains fragile. The turmoil caused by the recent downgrade of the sovereign credit rating of the US and European countries shows that the international community is very fragile and the balance of the international order is being re-established. The textile industry and textiles are sensitive to these changes. For the domestic market, unexpected events trigger fluctuations in the trading prices of bulk commodities. Longer-term repairs will cause a decrease in demand and affect the prices of industrial products; export instability caused by emergencies will be extremely detrimental to the production and operation of enterprises.